As I ponder the last four weeks in America.
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I want to know what’s around that metaphorical bend.
Maybe it’s my human evolution.
My distant ancestors needed to guess right about the predator outside the cave.
Or fool themselves into thinking they knew.
Grammarly has joined the confidence crowd.
It slaps my hand whenever I use a word like “maybe” in the second sentence or “perhaps” in the one below.
Given their phenomenal campaign launch in Philadelphia, perhaps Kamala Harris and Tim Walz will defeat Donald Trump and J.D. Vance.
It tells me to drop the perhaps so I will sound more confident.
Grammarly wants us all to feel more positive. Being confident that we can foretell the future will improve our mood.
It’s sure about this.
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What a bunch of hooey.
Conceivably, it’s helpful nonsense.
Using the language of confidence, I talk myself into believing I know what’s around the bend.
By reading my confident words, you drink the Kool-Aid, thinking you know more about the world than you do.
With arms locked together, we waltz happily into the future.
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But ponder this, my friend.
If, like me, you wanted Donald Trump to lose the 2024 American Presidential election, the world now seems, if not precisely, more orderly.
Predictable.
With Joe Biden’s recusal after pressure from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and others, Kamala Harris’ elevation, the quick coalescing of the Democratic Party around her, her mistake-free debut as a Presidential candidate, and the selection of everyman Minnesota’s Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, the dominoes seem to be falling in place.
To use my bike trail metaphor, all of this is nicely laid out right around the bend.
Of course, you know where I’m heading with this example. A few weeks ago, few would have predicted any of this.
- Joe’s withdrawal
- Because the Democratic Party was a hollow shell with no formal way to influence his thinking.
3. But if Joe did the unexpected, there would be a damaging fight for the nomination, or if he endorsed Kamala, she would not be a stellar campaigner.
4. If Harris became the nominee, she would pick a white male from one of the swing states, Arizona or Pennsylvania. Tim Walz was not on anyone’s list until the “These are weird people” interview.
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But there’s more.
When the Biden campaign offered a June 27th date for the first debate, it thought this would be to Joe’s advantage. Imagine if the first debate was during the fall campaign when it usually is.
Or, assume the deadly-to-Joe-chances debate occurs on June 27, followed by the Democratic Convention instead of the Republican Convention on July 15. As it was, it took Biden three weeks after the debate to withdraw.
If there had been no debate, there would have been no organized pressure on Joe. Even with the disastrous debate, an early convention would have left no time even for Pelosi and others to work their magic.
Under either circumstance, around the bend offers Biden/Harris vs. Trump/Vance.
Or, on July 14th, in Butler, Pennsylvania, what if Thomas Matthew Crooks’ aim had been three inches more accurate?
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My favorite website prognosticators, 538, now give the actual Democratic Party ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz a 50/50 chance of beating Donald Trump and JD Vance.
I think Blue’s chances are significantly better. But it’s more a hope and a feeling than anything else.
Holding “this or that” lightly seems a wise template for what might happen.
The unknown world, replete with contingencies, is beyond knowing — before it happens.
Before I travel around the bend.
