THE GOOD, BAD, UGLY AND HOPEFUL

“Why doesn’t American politics work better?” When I talk to classes or groups, this question is asked more often than any other. “What do you mean by work better?” I ask. “Well, you know, work out their differences, work together, get things done.” “Get things done,” I repeat, and add, parroting Lincoln, “doing things for us we can’t do for ourselves.”

That’s the ugly in American politics, too many modern challenges, including COVID 19, seem beyond government’s capacity to manage, let alone solve. The ugly story is connected to two additional stories, the good and the bad, and the three together will give you a shorthand way to understand American politics and see a way forward. There is a way forward and that is the hopeful story.

THE GOOD

We need government to solve problems. But you and I also need choices, for how society’s problems ought to be solved. I want businesses to shut their doors to lessen the spread of COVID; you believe the economic and other costs of closing businesses are too great. Most solutions require trade-offs and democracy is superior to its authoritarian alternatives because it offers citizens choices. The clearer the choice the better. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump presented America’s record 158 million voters exactly that.

When I was growing up in the 1960s, I knew my mom voted Democratic and my dad Republican. But I don’t think they disagreed about anything political other than their party ID. Paul and Dody Gardner supported the Vietnam War, opposed the protesters, accepted the necessity of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and worried about giving more money to the poor. When it came time to vote, they carried their agreements into the voting booth, and voted for different parties.

In the sixties America was full of division, with the assassinations of President Kennedy, Malcolm X., Martin Luther King, Jr. and Bobby Kennedy. Street protests against Vietnam imprisoned Lyndon Johnson in the White House leading to his decision not to seek re-election in 1968. But America’s inside-the-tent politics – its two major parties – did not accurately reflect its outside-the-tent divisions.

America’s Republican Party included plenty of liberals and its Democratic Party conservatives, from the south. Liberal Republicans supported the 1964 Civil Rights Act and conservative Democrats did not. In 1968, Republican presidential candidate Richard Nixon developed a southern strategy, including racial code words such as “law and order,” to appeal to southern conservatives opposed to civil rights legislation and a northern strategy, including supporting affirmative action and environmental policies, to appeal to northeastern liberals.

Until the mid 1960s, America’s two political parties worked pretty well together because neither took a decisive stand on America’s racist policies. Once the 1964 Civil Rights Act passed under the leadership of a Democratic President Lyndon Johnson, America’s two parties would morph over the next six decades into the two perfectly sorted parties that exist today.

The Democratic Party would become the party of inclusion and equality on controversies related to race, gender, sexual orientation, and immigration. The Republican Party would be the party of saying NO or slow down. Ronald Brownstein refers to the voters who supported Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden as the coalition of transformation. He labels the supporters of Republicans John McCain, Mitt Romney and Donald Trump the coalition of restoration.

THE GOOD: IN 2020 AMERICA’S TWO MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES OFFER VOTERS DISTINCT VISIONS FOR WHAT KIND OF COUNTRY AMERICA SHOULD BE. AMERICA’S POLITICAL DIVISIONS MIRROR ITS SOCIETAL DIVISIONS.

THE BAD

America is an evenly divided country. It is true that in two presidential elections, Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 10 million votes. But America’s Presidential election rules favor small, rural states. The candidate that wins the most votes in a state wins all of the state’s Electors.

Even though Joe Biden won the 2020 popular vote by 7 million votes and the Electoral College 306 to 221, 44,000 votes in three states – Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin – out of 158 million votes cast, separated a Biden victory from a tie vote. Even though Donald Trump in 2016 lost the popular vote by 3 million ballots, he won the Electoral College by an identical margin and a change in 77,000 votes in three states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – out of 137 million ballots, and there would have been a President Hillary Clinton.

The blue and red map does not lie. America is an evenly divided country and it is an increasingly angry country. Its two parties give us a clear choice on the most difficult of all political controversies, what kind of country do we want America to be? But this is where America’s election rules begin to let us down. These rules favor two dominant parties because the candidates of third parties have no chance of winning office. In elections for the House and Senate, there is only one winner and that winner must receive a plurality of the vote.

Not even scraps for the candidate who can get 10 or 20 or even 40 percent. The Democratic and Republican Parties are the only game in town. Support for more parties is higher than ever, with more than 50% of Republicans and Democrats wanting more choice. Many Americans intuit that two dominant parties exaggerate our differences. A choice of two reduces the complexity and nuance required to manage our way through our difficult problems. More important, and the bad, a choice of two reinforces the bane of all societies, the human proclivity to tribalism.

THE BAD: AMERICA’S ELECTION RULES AND SORTED TWO PARTY SYSTEM PRESENT AMERICA WITH TRIBALISM AT ITS WORST, THE HUMAN TENDENCY TO DIVIDE INTO US VS. THEM.

THE UGLY

Americans are evenly divided into two well sorted parties. The Democratic Party is America’s reform party, urging the country toward its promise as a large, multi-racial democracy that extends rights and privileges to all. The Republican Party is America’s conservative party, emphasizing traditional perspectives, and a cautionary approach to change.

What unifies Americans is their shared disgust for how government works. This is the “why can’t they get things done?” response I get in my talks, usually uttered with a combination of frustration and wonderment. The WHY to this question is the ugly part of the story.

The American Founders did not like political parties and built a governmental system that would depend upon politicians working together. Separation of powers and checks and balances were built into the system forcing each national government institution to share power thus giving each part – the House, Senate and Presidency – a veto over the other. For long stretches of American political history this sharing power system worked reasonably well because one party dominated national politics. For example, from the 1930s to 1980, the Democratic Party controlled the House and Senate most of the time. This meant the congressional Republican Party had the incentive to cooperate because they rarely could win enough seats to control. Single party dominance = bipartisanship.

Since 1980 each party has controlled the House and Senate roughly half the time. This means THAT in any given Congress BECAUSE the minority or out party sees a reasonable chance of taking back the institution in two years it has little incentive to cooperate. In 2009, why would Republicans help President Obama craft the Affordable Health Care Act if they could run against ‘Obamacare’ and win back the House and Senate, exactly what they did in 2010. In 2021, evenly divided parties means bipartisanship is irrational. Because America’s system of government requires cooperation, the system is stymied in its main task of “doing for us what we can’t do for ourselves.”

THE UGLY: IN 2021 EVENLY DIVIDED PARTIES MEANS BIPARTISANSHIP IS IRRATIONAL. BECAUSE AMERICA’S SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT REQUIRES COOPERATION, AMERICA’S GOVERNMENT IS STYMIED IN ITS MAIN TASK OF “DOING FOR US WHAT WE CAN’T DO FOR OURSELVES.”

HOPEFUL

Americans are resilient. In the midst of COVID – the fear, sickness and death – more Americans voted in 2020 than ever before, a record 158 million. Since 2009, millions of Americans have organized on the right and on the left, from the Tea Party to Black Lives Matter, to take to the streets in mostly peaceful protests. Americans have not given up on American politics. And their two dominant parties provide clear, different and compelling answers to the question Americans have argued about from the beginning, “who are we?” Unfortunately, America’s evenly divided two-party system does not work well with its governmental structure that requires a sharing of power. And Americans know that. How long will they accept gridlock?

If politics is to help a country of 330 million answer the “who are we” question in a way that most of us can accept, we need more than two options, more than two parties offering alternatives. On any political issue, but especially an issue of national identity, the best politics gives its citizens a more nuanced and complicated way to think about their challenges. Two parties reinforce our human tendency to divide into tribes. Four or five offers us a chance to find common ground with others. Most democracies in the world – including all countries that became democratic in the 20th and 21st century – understand this and so crafted election rules that produced multi-party systems.

The single most important change in America’s election rules that would give America a multi-party system is ranked choice voting. Wikipedia provides an excellent description as does Lee Drutman in Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The case for Multiparty democracy. Drutman tells the stories of how Maine and New Zealand moved from single seat, plurality elections to ranked choice voting. It took each about a decade and the reform efforts were a combination of elite leadership and grassroots organizing.

RANKED CHOICE VOTING AND THE JANUARY 6 ATTACK ON THE AMERICA’S CAPITAL (AND DEMOCRACY)

Adopting multi-winner ranked choice election reforms will also help America manage its extremists. The mob that attacked the American Congress on January 6 demonstrated by its violence and symbolism that it was outside the norms of American politics. We learn more everyday about the involvement of many of America’s far right extremists and groups. Many believe President Trump has empowered these groups. That they find solace and comfort inside one of America’s two major parties. The rules of America’s politics have given these extremist groups and their sympathizers power beyond their numbers. Thus you have half the members of the Republican House delegation voting to overturn the election of Joe Biden hours after this violent assault on Congress.

At Luther I taught a course on terrorism for more than 15 years. One of the things I learned from our study of of terrorist groups, from the Irish Republican Army to America’s Klu Klux Klan to Al Qaeda, is that these groups’ political goals are shared by many who would never engage in violence. For many of those in DC last Wednesday, accepting the election results means their grievances and resentments will no longer be aired by the most powerful person in the world. What are those grievances? I think a combination of cultural, demographic, and economic changes in America that reduce their status.

These folks are not going away. In fact, if America continues to become the kind of country I want it to be, a truly equal multi-religious, multi-racial and multi-ethnic democracy, that is not the country many of these people want. America’s very progress toward its Declaration of Independence and Preamble to the Constitution aspirational goals make it vulnerable to the kind of backlash we witnessed on January 6th. How does a modern democracy manage this inevitable conflict?

America’s current election rules and its two party system have given this anti-diversity, anti-tolerance group significant influence in the Republican Party. For this group, represented in ends if not means by the mob that stormed Congress, the election loss in 2020 is impossible to accept. How does a modern democracy manage this group?

One answer is taking place right now, inside the Republican Party. The anti-Trump forces have a bit of wind to their back by the almost universal condemnation of the January 6 attack and for many the close connection between the words of President Trump about a fraudulent election the violence on the 6th. This together with the recognition that over Trump’s term the Republican Party lost the House, Senate and the Presidency may lead to a more moderate Republican Party. Even if this does happen, there is no guarantee that another extremist element might take over one of America’s two main parties in the future.

Changing America’s election laws to a form of ranked choice voting with multi-member districts would encourage the development of four or five parties. With the choice of multiple parties, the American extremes can be heard, may even win seats in Congress, but are very unlikely to ever dominate politics. Giving these folks a voice allows us to see them, to hear them, and to manage them. This is certainly a better alternative than to risk again the chance that tomorrow’s extremists will again gain functional control of one of America’s two major parties.

CONCLUSION

A multi-party system will not solve America’s problems. But the real world experiences of countries that have adapted this system suggest multi-party systems encourage compromise and discourage negative advertising. Increasing comity and decreasing negativity are exactly what America needs. There is a proven way forward for our country. Educate yourself; talk with your neighbors; support candidates and referendum in favor of ranked choice. There is a way out of this mess.

America’s election rules in combination with its governing rules do not serve American well in the 21st century. The problem is not America’s politicians but its election rules. As America grapples with its growing diversity and as it struggles to bring its aspirations in line with the realities of many of its citizens, it needs a politics that will not exaggerate its divisions. Ranked choice voting with multi-winners leading to a muilt-party system is a straightforward and proven remedy.

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I recommend three books for follow-up reading: Ezra Klein’s Why We’re Polarized?, Lee Drutman’s Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop, and Frances Lee’s Insecure Majorities.